Development and validation of a depression risk prediction nomogram for US Adults with hypertension, based on NHANES 2007–2018

Abstract

Depression is of increasing concern as its prevalence increases. Our study’s objective was to create and evaluate a nomogram to predict the likelihood that hypertension patients may experience depression. 13293 people with hypertension who were under 20 years old were chosen from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database between 2007 and 2018 for this study. The training and validation sets were split up into the dataset at random in a 7:3 ratio. To find independent predictors, univariate and multivariate logistic regression were employed on the training set. Using information from the validation set, nomogram was subsequently created and internally validated. The effectiveness of the nomogram is assessed using calibration curve and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve. Combining univariate logistic regression analysis and multifactor logistic regression analysis, the results showed that age, sex, race, marital, education level, sleep time on workdays, poverty to income ratio, smoking, alcohol consumption, sedentary time and heart failure status were risk factors for hypertensive patients suffering from depression and were included in the nomogram model, and ROC analysis showed that the AUC of the training set was 0.757 (0.797–0.586), with a sensitivity of 0.586; the AUC of the test set was 0.724 (0.712–0.626), with a sensitivity of 0.626, which was a good fit. Decision curve analysis further confirms the value of nomogram for clinical application. In the civilian non-institutionalized population of the United States, our study suggests a nomogram that can aid in predicting the likelihood of depression in hypertension patients and aiding in the selection of the most effective treatments.