A Stochastic Model for Phylogenetic Trees

Abstract

We propose the following simple stochastic model for phylogenetic trees. New types are born and die according to a birth and death chain. At each birth we associate a fitness to the new type sampled from a fixed distribution. At each death the type with the smallest fitness is killed. We show that if the birth (i.e. mutation) rate is subcritical, we obtain a phylogenetic tree consistent with an influenza tree (few types at any given time and one dominating type lasting a long time). When the birth rate is supercritical, we obtain a phylogenetic tree consistent with an HIV tree (many types at any given time, none lasting very long).