Author:
Wu Sijin,Huang Zhejun,Grant-Muller Susan,Gu Dongfeng,Yang Lili
Abstract
AbstractAlthough the dynamic zero-COVID policy has effectively controlled virus spread in China, China has to face challenges in balancing social-economic burdens, vaccine protection, and the management of long COVID symptoms. This study proposed a fine-grained agent-based model to simulate various strategies for transitioning from a dynamic zero-COVID policy with a case study in Shenzhen. The results indicate that a gradual transition, maintaining some restrictions, can mitigate infection outbreaks. However, the severity and duration of epidemics vary based on the strictness of the measures. In contrast, a more direct transition to reopening may lead to rapid herd immunity but necessitate preparedness for potential sequelae and reinfections. Policymakers should assess healthcare capacity for severe cases and potential long-COVID symptoms and determine the most suitable approach tailored to local conditions.
Funder
Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Program
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Reference20 articles.
1. Al-Aly, Z., Bowe, B. & Xie, Y. Long COVID after breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection. Nat. Med. 28, 1461–1467 (2022).
2. Acute and postacute sequelae associated with SARS-CoV-2 reinfection. Nat. Med. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3 (2022).
3. Xie, Y., Bowe, B. & Al-Aly, Z. Burdens of post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 by severity of acute infection, demographics and health status. Nat. Commun. 12, 6571 (2021).
4. Koks, E. E. & Thissen, M. A multiregional impact assessment model for disaster analysis. Econ. Syst. Res. 28, 429–449 (2016).
5. Barnard, R. C. et al. Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era. Nat. Commun. 13, 4879 (2022).
Cited by
3 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献