Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era
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Published:2022-08-19
Issue:1
Volume:13
Page:
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ISSN:2041-1723
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Container-title:Nature Communications
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Nat Commun
Author:
Barnard Rosanna C.ORCID, Davies Nicholas G.ORCID, Munday James D., Lowe Rachel, Knight Gwenan M., Leclerc Quentin J., Tully Damien C., Hodgson David, Pung Rachael, Hellewell Joel, Koltai Mihaly, Simons David, Abbas Kaja, Kucharski Adam J., Procter Simon R., Sandmann Frank G., Pearson Carl A. B., Prem Kiesha, Showering Alicia, Meakin Sophie R., O’Reilly Kathleen, McCarthy Ciara V., Quaife Matthew, Wong Kerry L. M., Jafari Yalda, Deol Arminder K., Houben Rein M. G. J., Diamond Charlie, Jombart Thibaut, Villabona-Arenas C. Julian, Waites William, Eggo Rosalind M., Endo Akira, Gibbs Hamish P., Klepac Petra, Williams Jack, Quilty Billy J., Brady Oliver, Emery Jon C., Atkins Katherine E., Chapman Lloyd A. C., Sherratt Katharine, Abbott Sam, Bosse Nikos I., Mee Paul, Funk Sebastian, Lei Jiayao, Liu Yang, Flasche Stefan, Rudge James W., Sun Fiona Yueqian, Medley Graham, Russell Timothy W., Gimma Amy, Hué Stéphane, Jarvis Christopher I., Finch Emilie, Clifford Samuel, Jit MarkORCID, Edmunds W. JohnORCID,
Abstract
AbstractEngland has experienced a heavy burden of COVID-19, with multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission since early 2020 and high infection levels following the emergence and spread of Omicron variants since late 2021. In response to rising Omicron cases, booster vaccinations were accelerated and offered to all adults in England. Using a model fitted to more than 2 years of epidemiological data, we project potential dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospital admissions and deaths in England to December 2022. We consider key uncertainties including future behavioural change and waning immunity and assess the effectiveness of booster vaccinations in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 disease burden between October 2021 and December 2022. If no new variants emerge, SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to decline, with low levels remaining in the coming months. The extent to which projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission resurges later in 2022 depends largely on assumptions around waning immunity and to some extent, behaviour, and seasonality.
Funder
European Commission RCUK | Medical Research Council DH | National Institute for Health Research
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
General Physics and Astronomy,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology,General Chemistry,Multidisciplinary
Reference67 articles.
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