Investigation of the flood event under global climate change with different analysis methods for both historical and future periods

Abstract

ABSTRACT Global climate change is a phenomenon resulting from the complex interaction of human influences and natural factors. These changes lead to imbalances in climate systems as human activities such as greenhouse-gas emissions increase atmospheric gas concentrations. This situation affects the frequency and intensity of climate events worldwide, with floods being one of them. Floods manifest as water inundations due to factors such as changes in rainfall patterns, rising temperatures, erosion, and sea-level rise. These floods cause significant damage to sensitive areas such as residential areas, agricultural lands, river valleys, and coastal regions, adversely impacting people's lives, economies, and environments. Therefore, flood risk has been investigated in decision-making processes in the Diyarbakır province using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method and future disaggregation of global climate model data. HadGEM-ES, GFDL-ESM2M, and MPI-ESM-MR models with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used. Model data were disaggregated using the equidistance quantile matching method. The study reveals flood-risk findings in the HadGEM-ES model while no flood risk was found in the GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-MR models. In the AHP method, flood risk analysis was conducted based on historical data across Diyarbakır and interpreted alongside future rainfall data.