The use of clinical and biological characteristics to predict outcome following First Episode Psychosis

Abstract

Objective: Psychotic illnesses such as schizophrenia and other non-affective psychoses are heterogeneous in disease course and functional outcomes. We review evidence from investigations in clinical psychiatry, neuroimaging, neurocognition, and blood biomarker research suggesting that distinct bio-psycho-social patterns exist at the onset and during the early phase of a First Episode Psychosis (FEP), which can describe the risk of individual illness progression and functional trajectories. Method: A selective literature review was performed on articles drawn from Medline searches for relevant key words. A simulation model was constructed from data derived from two recent publications, selected as examples of studies that investigated multivariate predictors of long-term outcome following FEP. Results: We illustrate how illness trajectories following FEP could be described based on multimodal sociodemographic, clinical, psychological, and neurobiological information. A clinical modeling simulation shows thatrisk trajectories for achieving long-term favorable or unfavorable outcomes can differ significantly depending on baseline characteristics in combination with MRI and functional measurements within 6 months of disease onset. Conclusions: Multimodal trajectory modeling may be useful to describe longitudinal outcomes following FEP. Richlongitudinal data on predictors and outcomes, and better integration of multimodal (sociodemographic, clinical, psychological, biological) data, are required to operationalize this approach. This technique may improve our understanding of course of illness and help to provide a more personalized approach to the assessment and treatment of people presenting with FEP.