Burden of stroke attributable to high ambient temperature from 1990 to 2019: A global analysis

Abstract

Aims: To determine the global and regional burden of stroke due to high temperature and the spatiotemporal trends in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Based on Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) for stroke attributable to high temperature (i.e. a daily mean temperature warmer than the theoretical minimum-risk exposure level (TMREL)) were calculated in global, geographical location, and country and analyzed by age, sex, subtypes, and socio-demographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2019. The trends in ASMR and ASDR from 1990 to 2019 were estimated by linear regression model. The regression coefficients (β) referred to a mean change of per year for ASMR or ASDR attributable to high temperature. Results: The global burden of stroke attributable to high temperature had an increase trend from 1990 to 2019 (β = 0.005, 95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 0.003–0.007 for ASMR and β = 0.104, 95% UI = 0.066–0.142 for ASDR, respectively). Globally, in 2019, an estimated 0.048 million deaths and 1.01 million DALYs of stroke were attributable to high temperature, and the global ASMR and ASDR of stroke attributable to high temperature were 0.60 (95% UI = 0.07–1.30) and 13.31 (1.40–28.97) per 100,000 population, respectively. The largest burden occurred in Western Sub-Saharan Africa, followed by South Asia, Southeast Asia, and North Africa and the Middle East. ASMR and ASDR increased with age and were higher in males and for intracerebral hemorrhage, and were the highest in the low SDI regions. In 2019, the region with the largest percentage increase in ASMR and ASDR attributable to high temperature was Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa from 1990 to 2019. Conclusions: Stroke burden due to high temperature has been increasing, and a higher burden was observed in people aged 65–75 years, males, and countries with a low SDI. Stroke burden attributable to high temperature constitutes a major global public health concern in the context of global warming.