Political uncertainty and high-quality economic development: Evidence from China

Abstract

We manually collated data on the turnover of party secretaries and mayors in 285 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2016 and calculated the quality of city economic development represented by environmental total factor productivity growth. We find that the political uncertainty caused by official turnover could significantly promote the improvement of the quality of economic development, and this positive can explained by the progress of production technology and government intervention. Moreover, the political uncertainty caused by the turnover of more educated officials, those with local hukou, promoted officials, and experienced officials could better promote high-quality economic development.