Effectiveness of SCORE2 and ASCVD Risk Scores in Combination With Aortic Arch Calcification on Chest Radiograph in Predicting Significant Coronary Artery Disease

Abstract

The present study evaluated 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk using ASCVD and Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE2) risk models in combination with aortic arch calcification (AAC) to identify those at high risk for significant coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients undergoing coronary angiography. Of the 402 patients enrolled, 48 had normal coronary angiograms and served as group 1. The 131 patients with CAD with stenosis of <70% as group 2 and 223 patients with CAD with stenosis of ≥70% as group 3. ASCVD and SCORE2 risk scores, and the presence of AAC differed significantly among these groups. For prediction of significant CAD, the area under the curve (AUC) of ASCVD and SCORE2 risk scores in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were statistically similar ([AUC: .647, P < .001] and [AUC: .654, P < .001], respectively). When AAC was added to ASCVD risk and SCORE2, it increased their predictive value for significant CAD in the ROC curve analysis ( P = .003, and P = .019, respectively). In addition, significant net reclassification improvement (NRI) values were obtained by adding AAC to ASCVD and SCORE2 risk models ([NRI = .10, P = .04], and [NRI = .19, P = .04], respectively). These results suggest that the predictive value of ASCVD and SCORE2 increases when AAC is combined.