Tourist arrivals and overnight stays along the Croatian Adriatic Coast: Changes in persistence and seasonality from the COVID-19 disruption

Abstract

This study examines the changes in the persistence and seasonality inherent in the Croatian tourism sector in light of the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. First, we differentiate between the changes in the persistence and seasonal behavior with respect to domestic and foreign tourist arrivals and overnight stays. Second, with nearly 90% of the Croatian tourism sector tied to the seven counties along the Adriatic coast we investigate the differential regional impact on persistence and seasonal behavior. Our results indicate the disruption was much more prominent for foreign tourist arrivals and overnight stays relative to domestic tourist arrivals and overnight stays with respect to the increased persistence associated with the onset of the pandemic along with the seasonal autoregressive component reduced considerably.