Reliability assessment method for tank bottom plates based on hierarchical Bayesian corrosion growth model

Author:

Zhang Guilin12ORCID,Xie Fei12,Wang Dan12

Affiliation:

1. College of Petroleum Engineering, Liaoning Petrochemical University, Fushun, China

2. Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Storage and Transportation Technology in Liaoning Province, Fushun, China

Abstract

For effectively predicting the tank failure time and analyzing the key elements influencing the reliability of corroded bottom plates, this article presents a model for calculating the reliability of corroded tank bottom plates based on a hierarchical Bayesian corrosion growth model. Firstly, the growth of corrosion defect depth is expressed by the gamma process, and the hierarchical Bayesian model is used to calculate the corrosion depth growth. After that, the reliability calculation model of the corroded tank base plate is established by combining the results of the hierarchical Bayesian model with the stress-strength interference theory, and the three uncertain factors of the base plate thickness, radius, and yield strength are considered in the model. Finally, the reliability assessment and sensitivity analysis of corroded bottom plate are carried out. The results show that the proposed reliability calculation model can provide more accurate failure state prediction results than the reliability calculation model which only considers the influence of corrosion depth, and can provide reference for reducing the failure rate of tank floor and reasonably formulating the maintenance plan of tank floor.

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3