Pragmatic prospection, the matrix of maybe, uncertainty, and human agency

Abstract

The human agent exists in a world consisting not only of facts and stimuli but also of possibilities. The multiplicity of possibilities is most readily apparent in the future. Pragmatic prospection theory proposes that people think about the future to predict possibilities (e.g. choice points requiring decision) rather than final outcomes. This process can be analyzed into two heuristic steps. The first one envisions a desirable outcome and therefore is optimistically biased. The second step considers how to reach that outcome, including noting obstacles and difficulties, and is therefore less subject to optimistic bias. Many psychological processes are adapted for an environment in which uncertainty is a frequent aspect, and the psychology of dealing with uncertainty mixes simple, crude responses (e.g. conserve resources, be alert to all information) with complex and sometimes irrational ones. The advanced human form of agency, sometimes called free will, involves complex processes including mental simulation of future alternatives, integration across time, and application of meaningful categories and principles to the causation of behavior.