Corruption, Gerrymandering and Perceptions of Election Integrity: Is There More to Confidence Than Partisanship?

Abstract

The role of partisanship in confidence of elections is well established, particularly with effects of the false rhetoric from President Donald Trump. But is partisanship the only reason why someone may express less confidence in elections and those who run them? We examine the role that the political context of the state may play in shaping perceptions. Some states (e.g. Louisiana) have a history of corruption. Other states (e.g. Wisconsin) have relatively egregious gerrymandering affecting legislative elections. We expect that greater incidence of public corruption and gerrymandering in a state may lead people to doubt the honesty and fairness of their election officials and vote counts. We merge state-level measures of public corruption and legislative gerrymandering with individual-level measures of public confidence in vote counts and confidence in election officials and find evidence to support our hypotheses. Corruption and gerrymandering may have little to do with election officials and how votes are counted, but may nonetheless erode trust in public processes generally, including elections.