A computed tomography-based radiomic nomogram for predicting lymph node metastasis in patients with early-stage papillary thyroid carcinoma

Abstract

Background Accurate assessment of lymph node metastasis (LNM) is important for the selection of the optimal therapeutic strategy in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). Purpose To develop and validate a radiomics nomogram based on computed tomography (CT) for predicting LNM in patients with early-stage PTC. Material and Methods A total of 92 patients with pathologically confirmed PTC were divided into a training cohort (n =  64) and validation cohort (n  =  28). Radiomic features of the tumor and peritumoral interstitium were extracted from contrast-enhanced CT images. The radiomic signature was constructed and the radiomic score (Rad-score) was calculated. Combined with the Rad-score and independent clinical factors, a radiomic nomogram was constructed and its performance was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration plots. The comparison of ROC curves was performed with DeLong's test Results A combined nomogram model of the thyroid tumor and peritumoral interstitium was constructed based on the Rad-score, tumor location, maximum diameter, and T stage, and it had areas under the ROC curve of 0.956 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.913–1.000) and 0.876 (95% CI = 0.741–1.000) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Decision curve analysis suggested that the combined nomogram model had better clinical usefulness than the other models. Conclusion A CT-based radiomics nomogram incorporating the radiomic signature and the selected clinical predictors can be a reliable approach to preoperatively predict the LNM status in patients with early-stage PTC, which is helpful for treatment decisions and prognosis.