The Determinants of Democratic Transitions

Abstract

A formal dynamic theory of the transition from a developing autocracy to democracy is presented in the context of a heterogeneous agent general equilibrium growth model. The theory shows that the primary determinants affecting the timing of democratic transitions are per capita income, the distribution of wealth, educational levels, and the strength of preferences for political rights and civil liberties. The implications of the theory are tested by estimating a proportional hazard function to determine the probability of a democratic transition at a particular point in time. The empirics demonstrate strong support for the model in an estimation of 75 countries during the postwar period.