Regional Variation in Lifetime Probability of Admission to Residential Aged Care in Australia

Abstract

Objectives This paper aims to apply a novel demographic technique to update – and extend to sub-national regions – estimates of the lifetime probability of admission to residential aged care. Methods Making optimal use of Australian data sources on aged care usage, mortality and population, this study adopts a two-population life table approach to produce an updated set of national probability estimates and first-time regional estimates. Results The probability of admission generally increases with age: nationally, lifetime probability at age 65 is 50% for women and 37% for men, rising to 55% and 46%, respectively, at age 85. This general pattern varied somewhat across regions. Discussion The regional results point to inequities in the uptake of care, thereby informing providers, governments, aged care advocates and anyone interested in equity of access.