Comprehensive machine-learning survival framework develops a consensus model in large-scale multicenter cohorts for pancreatic cancer

Abstract

As the most aggressive tumor, the outcome of pancreatic cancer (PACA) has not improved observably over the last decade. Anatomy-based TNM staging does not exactly identify treatment-sensitive patients, and an ideal biomarker is urgently needed for precision medicine. Based on expression files of 1280 patients from 10 multicenter cohorts, we screened 32 consensus prognostic genes. Ten machine-learning algorithms were transformed into 76 combinations, of which we selected the optimal algorithm to construct an artificial intelligence-derived prognostic signature (AIDPS) according to the average C-index in the nine testing cohorts. The results of the training cohort, nine testing cohorts, Meta-Cohort, and three external validation cohorts (290 patients) consistently indicated that AIDPS could accurately predict the prognosis of PACA. After incorporating several vital clinicopathological features and 86 published signatures, AIDPS exhibited robust and dramatically superior predictive capability. Moreover, in other prevalent digestive system tumors, the nine-gene AIDPS could still accurately stratify the prognosis. Of note, our AIDPS had important clinical implications for PACA, and patients with low AIDPS owned a dismal prognosis, higher genomic alterations, and denser immune cell infiltrates as well as were more sensitive to immunotherapy. Meanwhile, the high AIDPS group possessed observably prolonged survival, and panobinostat may be a potential agent for patients with high AIDPS. Overall, our study provides an attractive tool to further guide the clinical management and individualized treatment of PACA.