Comparison of soft-computing techniques: Data-driven models for flood forecasting

Abstract

<p>Accurate flood forecasting is a crucial process for predicting the timing, occurrence, duration, and magnitude of floods in specific zones. This prediction often involves analyzing various hydrological, meteorological, and environmental parameters. In recent years, several soft computing techniques have been widely used for flood forecasting. In this study, flood forecasting for the Narmada River at the Hoshangabad gauging site in Madhya Pradesh, India, was conducted using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model, a Fuzzy Logic (FL) model, and an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model. To assess their capacity to handle different levels of information, three separate input data sets were used. Our objective was to compare the performance and evaluate the suitability of soft computing data-driven models for flood forecasting. For the development of these models, monthly discharge data spanning 33 years from six gauging sites were selected. Various performance measures, such as regression, root mean square error (RMSE), and percentage deviation, were used to compare and evaluate the performances of the different models. The results indicated that the ANN and ANFIS models performed similarly in some cases. However, the ANFIS model generally predicted much better than the ANN model in most cases. The ANFIS model, developed using the hybrid method, delivered the best performance with an RMSE of 211.97 and a coefficient of regression of 0.96, demonstrating the potential of using these models for flood forecasting. This research highlighted the effectiveness of soft computing techniques in flood forecasting and established useful suitability criteria that can be employed by flood control departments in various countries, regions, and states for accurate flood prognosis.</p>