Demand assessment of the number of inpatient beds in China based on the COVID-19 dynamical model

Abstract

COVID-19 is a worldwide pandemic that poses a great threat to people’s health and has a huge impact on economic and social life. The epidemic is currently at a low level, but is still prevalent worldwide. Therefore, it is still important to study the prevention and control of the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. We collected the numbers of COVID-19 infections in China during the past three years, and obtained the regional distribution of outbreaks through analysis. To assess the capacity of medical resources in these regions in response to the outbreaks of COVID-19, we developed a model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics including mild and severe cases. The simulation showed that 11 regions, Beijing, Shanghai, Heilongjiang, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Hainan, Guangdong and Fujian, all have a serious shortage of medical beds in reserve. When facing the next new outbreak, these areas will have insufficient medical resources. We simulated the effects of drug effectiveness and the proportion of asymptomatic infected individuals on the spread of the epidemic, and obtained that an accurate determination of the proportion of asymptomatic patients in the population is crucial to the impact on healthcare resources, while improving the effectiveness of drugs can significantly reduce the burden on healthcare resources. Regions should invest more in healthcare and increase more medical resources, including medical beds. Government should accelerate the development of effective COVID-19 drugs to effectively control the scale of the outbreak. The proportion of asymptomatic patients in the population has a significant impact on the allocation of healthcare resources. The monitoring of antibody levels in the population should be strengthened to better control the spread of the epidemic.