DYNAMICAL ANALYSIS OF A NOVEL DISCRETE FRACTIONAL SITRS MODEL FOR COVID-19

Author:

ELSONBATY AMR12,SABIR ZULQURNAIN3,RAMASWAMY RAJAGOPALAN1,ADEL WALEED2

Affiliation:

1. Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Humanities in Al-Kharj, Prince Sattam bin Abdulaziz University, Al-Kharj 11942, Saudi Arabia

2. Department of Mathematics and Engineering Physics, Faculty of Engineering, Mansoura University, Egypt

3. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Hazara University, Mansehra, Pakistan

Abstract

In this paper, a discrete fractional Susceptible-Infected-Treatment-Recovered-Susceptible (SITRS) model for simulating the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is presented. The model is a modification to a recent continuous-time SITR model by taking into account the possibility that people who have been infected before can lose their temporary immunity and get reinfected. Moreover, a modification is suggested in the present model to correct the improper assumption that the infection rates of both normal susceptible and old aged/seriously diseased people are equal. This modification complies with experimental data. The equilibrium points for the proposed model are found and results of thorough stability analysis are discussed. A full numerical simulation is carried out and gives a better analysis of the disease spread, influences of model’s parameters, and how to control the virus. Comparisons with clinical data are also provided.

Publisher

World Scientific Pub Co Pte Lt

Subject

Applied Mathematics,Geometry and Topology,Modelling and Simulation

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