Investor Regret and Stock Returns

Author:

Arisoy Y. Eser1ORCID,Bali Turan G.2,Tang Yi3ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Finance, NEOMA Business School, 51100 Reims, France;

2. Department of Finance, McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University, Washington, District of Columbia 20057;

3. Finance and Business Economics Area, Gabelli School of Business, Fordham University, New York, New York 10023

Abstract

We introduce a measure of regret for stock market investors and investigate its cross-sectional asset pricing implications. According to our regret-based framework, investors experience regret due to not achieving the highest possible return from a similar set of stock investments, and equity portfolios with high regret generate 6.84% more annualized alpha than portfolios with low regret. Using investor-trading activity of 78,000 households at a large U.S.-based brokerage firm, we develop an investor-based regret index and show that this household-level regret measure predicts stock returns in a similar way to our proposed regret measure. We also show that regret is not spanned by established risk or behavioral factors that have been documented to be robust predictors of equity returns. This paper was accepted by David Sraer, finance. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.03389 .

Publisher

Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)

Subject

Management Science and Operations Research,Strategy and Management

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