Community first response for cardiac arrest: comparing phased dispatch policies through Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

AbstractBackgroundAdvanced Community First Responder (CFR) systems send so-called phased alerts: notifications with built-in time delays. The policy that defines these delays affects response times, CFR workload and the number of redundant CFR arrivals.MethodsWe compare policies by Monte Carlo Simulation, estimating the three metrics above. We bootstrap acceptance probabilities and response delays from 29,307 rows of historical data covering all GoodSAM alerts in New Zealand between 1-12-2017 and 30-11-2020. We simulate distances between the patient and CFRs by assuming that CFRs are located uniformly at random in a 1 km circle around the patient, for different CFR densities. Our simulated CFRs travel with a distance-dependent speed that was estimated by linear regression on observed speeds among those responders in the abovementioned data set that eventually reached the patient.ResultsThe alerting policy has a large impact on the expected number of alerts sent, the redundant arrivals and the probability of patient survival. CFR app managers can use our results to identify a policy that displays a desirable trade-off between these performance measures.