Author:
Aslan Ibrahim Halil,Chamberlin Andrew J.,Mitchell Kaitlyn R.,Pourtois Julie D.,Mari Lorenzo,Lwiza Kamazima M.,Wood Chelsea L.,Mordecai Erin A.,Tuan Roseli,Sanches Palasio Raquel Gardini,Monteiro Antônio M.V.,Kirk Devin,Athni Tejas S.,Sokolow Susanne H.,N’Goran Eliezer K.,Diakite Nana R.,Ouattara Mamadou,Gatto Marino,Casagrandi Renato,Little David C.,Ozretich Reed W.,Normal Rachael,Allan Fiona,Brierley Andrew S.,Liu Ping,Pereira Thiago A.,De Leo Giulio A.
Abstract
AbstractThe geographical range of schistosomiasis is affected by the ecology of schistosome parasites and their obligate host snails, including their response to temperature. Previous models predicted schistosomiasis’ thermal optimum at 21.7 °C, which is not compatible with the temperature in sub-Saharan regions where schistosomiasis is hyperendemic. We performed an extensive literature search for empirical data on the effect of temperature on physiological and epidemiological parameters regulating the free-living stages ofS. mansoniandS. haematobiumand of their obligate host snails, i.e.,Biomphalariaspp. andBulinusspp., respectively. We derived nonlinear thermal responses fitted on these data to parameterize a mechanistic, process-based model of schistosomiasis. We then re-cast the basic reproduction number, and prevalence of schistosome infection as functions of temperature. We found that the thermal optima for transmission ofS. mansoniandS. haematobiumrange between 23.1-27.3°C and 23.6-27.9°C respectively. We also found that the thermal optimum shifts toward higher temperatures as the human water contact rate increases with temperatures. Our findings line up with an extensive dataset of schistosomiasis prevalence data in sub-Sharan Africa. The refined nonlinear thermal-response model developed here suggests a more suitable current climate and a greater risk of increased transmission with future warming.
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
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