The projected prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in people with HIV in the United States through the year 2030

Abstract

ABSTRACTImportanceEstimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs.ObjectiveTo project the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the US through 2030.DesignAgent-based simulation modelSettingHIV clinics in the United States in the recent past (2020) and near future (2030)ParticipantsIn 2020, 674,531 PWH were using ART; 9% were men and 4% women with history of injection drug use; 60% were men who have sex with men (MSM); 8% were heterosexual men and 19% heterosexual women; 44% were non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black); 32% were non-Hispanic White (White); and 23% were Hispanic.Exposure(s)Demographic and HIV acquisition risk subgroupsMain Outcomes and MeasuresProjected prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV).ResultsWe projected 914,738 PWH using ART in the US in 2030. Multimorbidity increased from 58% in 2020 to 63% in 2030. The prevalence of depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension and dyslipidemia decreased, diabetes and CKD increased, MI increased steeply, but there was little change in cancer and ESLD. Among Black women with history of injection drug use (oldest demographic subgroup in 2030), CKD, anxiety, hypertension, and depression were most prevalent and 93% were multimorbid. Among Black MSM (youngest demographic subgroup in 2030), depression was highly prevalent, followed by hypertension and 48% were multimorbid. Comparatively, 67% of White MSM were multimorbid in 2030 (median age in 2030=59 years) and anxiety, depression, dyslipidemia, CKD, and hypertension were highly prevalent.Conclusion and relevanceThe distribution of multimorbidity will continue to differ by race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups, and be influenced by age and risk factor distributions that reflect the impact of social disparities of the health on women, people of color, and people who use drugs. HIV clinical care models and funding are urgently required to meet the healthcare needs of people with HIV in the next decade.KEY POINTSQuestionHow will the prevalence of multimorbidity change among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy in the US from 2020 to 2030?FindingsIn this agent-based simulation study using data from the NA-ACCORD and the CDC, multimorbidity (≥2 mental/physical comorbidities other than HIV) will increase from 58% in 2020 to 63% in 2030. The composition of comorbidities among multimorbid PWH vary by race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk group.MeaningHIV clinical programs and policy makers must act now to identify resources and care models to meet the increasingly complex medical needs of PWH over time, particularly mental healthcare needs.