Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations
Author:
Mathis Sarabeth M.ORCID, Webber Alexander E.ORCID, León Tomás M.ORCID, Murray Erin L.ORCID, Sun Monica, White Lauren A.ORCID, Brooks Logan C.ORCID, Green Alden, Hu Addison J.ORCID, McDonald Daniel J.ORCID, Rosenfeld RoniORCID, Shemetov Dmitry, Tibshirani Ryan J.ORCID, Kandula SasikiranORCID, Pei SenORCID, Shaman JeffreyORCID, Yaari RamiORCID, Yamana Teresa K.ORCID, Agarwal Pulak, Balusu Srikar, Gururajan Gautham, Kamarthi HarshavardhanORCID, Prakash B. AdityaORCID, Raman Rishi, Rodríguez AlexanderORCID, Zhao Zhiyuan, Meiyappan Akilan, Omar Shalina, Baccam Prasith, Gurung Heidi L., Stage Steve A., Suchoski Brad T., Ajelli Marco, Kummer Allisandra G., Litvinova Maria, Ventura Paulo C., Wadsworth Spencer, Niemi JaradORCID, Carcelen Erica, Hill Alison LORCID, Jung Sung-mokORCID, Lemaitre Joseph C.ORCID, Lessler JustinORCID, Loo Sara LORCID, McKee Clifton D.ORCID, Sato KojiORCID, Smith ClaireORCID, Truelove ShaunORCID, McAndrew ThomasORCID, Ye Wenxuan, Bosse Nikos, Hlavacek William S.ORCID, Lin Yen TingORCID, Mallela AbhishekORCID, Chen YeORCID, Lamm Shelby M., Lee JaechoulORCID, Posner Richard G.ORCID, Perofsky Amanda C.ORCID, Viboud CécileORCID, Clemente Leonardo, Lu Fred, Meyer Austin G, Santillana MauricioORCID, Chinazzi MatteoORCID, Davis Jessica T.ORCID, Mu KunpengORCID, Pastore y Piontti AnaORCID, Vespignani AlessandroORCID, Xiong XinyueORCID, Ben-Nun MichalORCID, Riley PeteORCID, Turtle JamesORCID, Hulme-Lowe Chis, Jessa Shakeel, Nagraj V.P., Turner Stephen D., Williams Desiree, Basu AvranilORCID, Drake John M.ORCID, Fox Spencer J.ORCID, Gibson Graham C., Suez EhsanORCID, Thommes Edward W., Cojocaru Monica G., Cramer Estee Y.ORCID, Gerding AaronORCID, Stark Ariane, Ray Evan L., Reich Nicholas G.ORCID, Shandross Li, Wattanachit Nutcha, Wang Yijin, Zorn Martha W., Aawar Majd AlORCID, Srivastava AjiteshORCID, Meyers Lauren A., Adiga AniruddhaORCID, Hurt Benjamin, Kaur Gursharn, Lewis Bryan L.ORCID, Marathe MadhavORCID, Venkatramanan SrinivasanORCID, Butler Patrick, Farabow Andrew, Muralidhar NikhilORCID, Ramakrishnan Naren, Reed Carrie, Biggerstaff MatthewORCID, Borchering Rebecca K.ORCID
Abstract
AbstractAccurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. Forecasting teams were asked to provide national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one through four weeks ahead for the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons.Across both seasons, 26 teams submitted forecasts, with the submitting teams varying between seasons. Forecast skill was evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage.Six out of 23 models outperformed the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021-22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022-23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble was the 2ndmost accurate model measured by WIS in 2021-22 and the 5thmost accurate in the 2022-23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degraded over longer forecast horizons and during periods of rapid change.Current influenza forecasting efforts help inform situational awareness, but research is needed to address limitations, including decreased performance during periods of changing epidemic dynamics.
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
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