Russia's attacks on civilians strengthen Ukrainian resistance

Author:

Bartusevičius Henrikas1ORCID,van Leeuwen Florian2ORCID,Mazepus Honorata3ORCID,Laustsen Lasse4ORCID,Tollefsen Andreas Forø15

Affiliation:

1. Department of Peace and Conflict Dynamics, Peace Research Institute Oslo, Hausmanns Gate 3, 0186 Oslo, Norway

2. Department of Social Psychology, Tilburg University, Professor Cobbenhagenlaan 225, 5037 DB Tilburg, The Netherlands

3. Department of Political Science, University of Amsterdam, Nieuwe Achtergracht 166, 1018 WV Amsterdam, The Netherlands

4. Department of Political Science and Centre for the Experimental-Philosophical Study of Discrimination, Aarhus University, Bartholins Allé 7, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark

5. Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo, Moltke Moes vei 31, 0851 Oslo, Norway

Abstract

Abstract The all-out Russian invasion of Ukraine commencing in February 2022 has been characterized by systematic violence against civilians. Presumably, the commanders of Russian forces believe that, for example, the bombing of residential buildings will force Ukrainians to lay down their arms. We ask whether military attacks against civilians deter or, in contrast, motivate resistance against the attackers. Two-wave probability surveys were collected in Ukraine in March and April 2022 (Ns = 1,081 and 811, respectively). Preregistered analyses indicate that perceptions and experience of military attacks (victimization) did not decrease Ukrainians’ motivations to resist the invading forces. The analyses suggest that victimization positively relates to motivations to join military combat in defense positions. Military attacks against civilians are morally impermissible and prohibited under international humanitarian law. Our results suggest that such attacks are also counterproductive from a military perspective.

Funder

Alexander Von Humboldt Research

Peace Research Institute Oslo

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

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