Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration: individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies

Author:

Pennells Lisa1,Kaptoge Stephen1,Wood Angela1,Sweeting Mike1,Zhao Xiaohui2,White Ian3,Burgess Stephen14,Willeit Peter15,Bolton Thomas1,Moons Karel G M6,van der Schouw Yvonne T7,Selmer Randi8,Khaw Kay-Tee1,Gudnason Vilmundur910,Assmann Gerd11,Amouyel Philippe12,Salomaa Veikko13,Kivimaki Mika14,Nordestgaard Børge G15,Blaha Michael J16,Kuller Lewis H17,Brenner Hermann1819,Gillum Richard F20,Meisinger Christa21,Ford Ian22,Knuiman Matthew W23,Rosengren Annika2425,Lawlor Debbie A26,Völzke Henry27,Cooper Cyrus28,Marín Ibañez Alejandro29,Casiglia Edoardo30,Kauhanen Jussi31,Cooper Jackie A32,Rodriguez Beatriz33,Sundström Johan34,Barrett-Connor Elizabeth35,Dankner Rachel3637,Nietert Paul J38,Davidson Karina W39,Wallace Robert B40,Blazer Dan G41,Björkelund Cecilia42,Donfrancesco Chiara43,Krumholz Harlan M44,Nissinen Aulikki13,Davis Barry R45,Coady Sean46,Whincup Peter H47,Jørgensen Torben484950,Ducimetiere Pierre51,Trevisan Maurizio52,Engström Gunnar53,Crespo Carlos J54,Meade Tom W55,Visser Marjolein56,Kromhout Daan57,Kiechl Stefan5,Daimon Makoto58,Price Jackie F59,Gómez de la Cámara Agustin60,Wouter Jukema J61,Lamarche Benoît62,Onat Altan63,Simons Leon A64,Kavousi Maryam65,Ben-Shlomo Yoav66,Gallacher John67,Dekker Jacqueline M68,Arima Hisatomi69,Shara Nawar70,Tipping Robert W71,Roussel Ronan72,Brunner Eric J73,Koenig Wolfgang7475,Sakurai Masaru76,Pavlovic Jelena65,Gansevoort Ron T77,Nagel Dorothea78,Goldbourt Uri37,Barr Elizabeth L M79,Palmieri Luigi43,Njølstad Inger80,Sato Shinichi81,Monique Verschuren W M82,Varghese Cherian V83,Graham Ian84,Onuma Oyere83,Greenland Philip85,Woodward Mark8687,Ezzati Majid88,Psaty Bruce M89,Sattar Naveed90,Jackson Rod91,Ridker Paul M92,Cook Nancy R92,D'Agostino Ralph B93,Thompson Simon G1,Danesh John1,Di Angelantonio Emanuele1,Tipping Robert W,Simpson Lara M,Pressel Sara L,Couper David J,Nambi Vijay,Matsushita Kunihiro,Folsom Aaron R,Shaw Jonathan E,Magliano Dianna J,Zimmet Paul Z,Knuiman Matthew W,Whincup Peter H,Wannamethee S Goya,Willeit Johann,Santer Peter,Egger Georg,Casas Juan Pablo,Amuzu Antointtte,Ben-Shlomo Yoav,Gallacher John,Tikhonoff Valérie,Casiglia Edoardo,Sutherland Susan E,Nietert Paul J,Cushman Mary,Psaty Bruce M,Søgaard Anne Johanne,Håheim Lise Lund,Ariansen Inger,Tybjærg-Hansen Anne,Jensen Gorm B,Schnohr Peter,Giampaoli Simona,Vanuzzo Diego,Panico Salvatore,Palmieri Luigi,Balkau Beverley,Bonnet Fabrice,Marre Michel,de la Cámara Agustin Gómez,Rubio Herrera Miguel Angel,Friedlander Yechiel,McCallum John,McLachlan Stela,Guralnik Jack,Phillips Caroline L,Guralnik Jack,Guralnik Jack,Guralnik Jack,Khaw Kay-Tee,Wareham Nick,Schöttker Ben,Saum Kai-Uwe,Holleczek Bernd,Nissinen Aulikki,Tolonen Hanna,Giampaoli Simona,Donfrancesco Chiara,Vartiainen Erkki,Jousilahti Pekka,Harald Kennet,D’Agostino Ralph B,Massaro Joseph M,Pencina Michael,Vasan Ramachandran,D’Agostino Ralph B,Massaro Joseph M,Pencina Michael,Vasan Ramachandran,Kayama Takamasa,Kato Takeo,Oizumi Toshihide,Jespersen Jørgen,Møller Lars,Bladbjerg Else Marie,Chetrit A,Rosengren Annika,Wilhelmsen Lars,Björkelund Cecilia,Lissner Lauren,Nagel Dorothea,Dennison Elaine,Kiyohara Yutaka,Ninomiya Toshiharu,Doi Yasufumi,Rodriguez Beatriz,Nijpels Giel,Stehouwer Coen D A,Sato Shinichi,Kazumasa Yamagishi,Iso Hiroyasu,Goldbourt Uri,Salomaa Veikko,Vartiainen Erkki,Kurl Sudhir,Tuomainen Tomi-Pekka,Salonen Jukka T,Visser Marjolein,Deeg Dorly J H,Meade Tom W,Nilsson Peter M,Hedblad Bo,Melander Olle,De Boer Ian H,DeFilippis Andrew Paul,Verschuren W M Monique,Sattar Naveed,Watt Graham,Meisinger Christa,Koenig Wolfgang,Koenig Wolfgang,Meisinger Christa,Verschuren W M Monique,Rosengren Annika,Kuller Lewis H,Tverdal Aage,Gillum Richard F,Cooper Jackie A,Kirkland Susan,Shimbo Daichi,Shaffer Jonathan,Sato Shinichi,Kazumasa Yamagishi,Iso Hiroyasu,Ducimetiere Pierre,Bakker Stephan J L,van der Harst Pim,Hillege Hans L,Crespo Carlos J,Amouyel Philippe,Dallongeville Jean,Assmann Gerd,Schulte Helmut,Trompet Stella,Smit Roelof A J,Stott David J,van der Schouw Yvonne T,Després Jean-Pierre,Cantin Bernard,Dagenais Gilles R,Laughlin Gail,Wingard Deborah,Khaw Kay-Tee,Trevisan Maurizio,Aspelund Thor,Eiriksdottir Gudny,Gudmundsson Elias Freyr,Ikram Arfan,van Rooij Frank J A,Franco Oscar H,Rueda-Ochoa Oscar L,Muka Taulant,Glisic Marija,Tunstall-Pedoe Hugh,Völzke Henry,Howard Barbara V,Zhang Ying,Jolly Stacey,Gallacher John,Davey-Smith George,Can Günay,Yüksel Hüsniye,Nakagawa Hideaki,Morikawa Yuko,Miura Katsuyuki,Njølstad Inger,Ingelsson Martin,Giedraitis Vilmantas,Ridker Paul M,Gaziano J Michael,Kivimaki Mika,Shipley Martin,Brunner Eric J,Shipley Martin,Arndt Volker,Brenner Hermann,Cook Nancy,Ridker Paul M,Ford Ian,Sattar Naveed,Ibañez Alejandro Marín,Geleijnse Johanna M,

Affiliation:

1. Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, 2 Worts' Causeway, Cambridge, UK

2. Department of Physiology, Development and Neuroscience, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, UK

3. MRC Clinical Trials Unit, University College London, 90 High Holborn, London, UK

4. MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge Institute of Public Health, University of Cambridge, Forvie Site, Robinson Way, Cambridge, UK

5. Department of Neurology and Neurosurgery, Medical University of Innsbruck, Anichstraße 35, Innsbruck, Austria

6. Epidemiology: Methodology, Julius Center Research Program Methodology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, Utrecht, the Netherlands

7. Department of Epidemiology, Julius Center Research Program Cardiovascular Epidemiology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, Utrecht, the Netherlands

8. Division of Epidemiology, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Postboks 222 Skøyen, Oslo, Norway

9. Icelandic Heart Association, Hjartavernd Holtasmá¡ri 1, Kópavogur, Iceland

10. Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Vatnsmýrarvegur 16, Reykjavik, Iceland

11. Assmann-Foundation for Prevention, Gronowskistraße 33, Münster, Germany

12. Institut Pasteur de Lille, 1 rue du Professeur Calmette, Lille, France

13. National Institute for Health and Welfare, Mannerheimintie 166, Helsinki, Finland

14. Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, 1-19 Torrington Place, London, UK

15. Department of Clinical Medicine, Copenhagen University Hospital, Blegdamsvej 3, Copenhagen, Denmark

16. Ciccarone Center for the Prevention of Heart Disease, Johns Hopkins Hospital, 1800 Orleans St, Baltimore, MD, USA

17. Department of Epidemiology, University of Pittsburgh, 200 Lothrop Street, Pittsburgh, PA, USA

18. Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Neuenheimer Feld 581, Heidelberg, Germany

19. University of Heidelberg, Grabengasse 1, Heidelberg, Germany

20. Department of Medicine, Howard University College of Medicine, 2041 Georgia Avenue, Washington, DC, USA

21. German Research Center for Environmental Health, Ingolstädter Landstraße 1, Neuherberg, Germany

22. Institute of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Boyd Orr Building, University Avenue, Glasgow, UK

23. Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, School of Population and Global Health, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Perth, Western Australia, Australia

24. Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Medicinaregatan 3, Gothenburg, Sweden

25. Wallenberg Laboratory, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Blå stråket 5, Gothenburg, Sweden

26. Department of Social Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK

27. Institute of Community Medicine, University of Greifswald, Ellernholzstraße 1/2, Greifswald, Germany

28. MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Tremona Rd, Southampton, UK

29. San Jose Norte Health Centre, 16 Lugar De Santuario Cabañas, Zaragoza, Spain

30. Department of Medicine, University of Padova, 2 Via Giustiniani, Padova, Italy

31. Institute of Public Health and Clinical Nutrition, University of Eastern Finland, 1 Yliopistonranta, Kuopio, Finland

32. Centre for Cardiovascular Genetics, University College London, 5 University Street, London, UK

33. Department of Geriatric Medicine, University of Hawaii, 1960 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI, USA

34. Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, Ing 40, 5 tr, Uppsala, Sweden

35. University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA, USA

36. Unit for Cardiovascular Epidemiology, The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research, Sheba Medical Center, Tel Hashomer, Israel

37. Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Sackler Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, Tel Aviv University, Ramat Aviv, Tel Aviv, Israel

38. Department of Public Health Sciences, Medical University of South Carolina, 135 Cannon Street, Charleston, SC, USA

39. Department of Medicine, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, 622 West 168th Street, New York, NY, USA

40. College of Public Health, University of Iowa, 145 N. Riverside Drive, Iowa City, IA, USA

41. Department of Surgery, Duke University Medical Center, 2301 Erwin Rd, Durham, NC, USA

42. Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Medicinaregatan 16, Gothenburg, Sweden

43. Department of Cardiovascular, Dysmetabolic and Aging-Associated Diseases, Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS), 299 Viale Regina Elena, Rome, Italy

44. Yale School of Medicine, 1 Church Street, New Haven, CT, USA

45. Department of Biostatistics, The University of Texas School of Public Health, 1200 Pressler Street, Houston, TX, USA

46. Division of Cardiovascular Sciences, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, 31 Center Drive, Bethesda, MD, USA

47. Population Health Research Institute, St George's, University of London, Cranmer Terrace, London, UK

48. Research Centre for Prevention and Health, 5 Øster Farimagsgade, Copenhagen, Denmark

49. Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, 5 Øster Farimagsgade, Copenhagen, Denmark

50. Aalborg University, Fredrik Bajers Vej 5, Aalborg, Denmark

51. Faculté de Médecine, Université Paris Descartes, 12 Rue de l'Ecole de Médecine, Paris, France

52. CUNY School of Medicine, City College of New York, 160 Convent Ave, New York, NY, USA

53. Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Jan Waldenströms gata 35, Malmö, Sweden

54. School of Community Health, Portland State University, 506 SW Mill St, Portland, OR, USA

55. Department of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK

56. Department of Health Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, VU University Medical Center, De Boelelaan 1085, Amsterdam, the Netherlands

57. Department of Epidemiology, University Medical Centre Groningen, University of Grogingen, Hanzeplein 1, Groningen, the Netherlands

58. Faculty of Medicine, Yamagata University, 1-4-12 Kojirakawa-machi, Yamagata, Japan

59. Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Old Medical School, Teviot Place, Edinburgh, UK

60. Department of Clinical Research, Hospital 12 de Octubre, Av. Cordoba, Madrid, Spain

61. Department of Cardiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Albinusdreef 2, Leiden, the Netherlands

62. Pavillon Ferdinand-Vandry, Université Laval, 2440 Hochelaga, Quebec, Canada

63. Department of Cardiology, Cerrahpaşa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University, Beyazıt, Fatih, Istanbul, Turkey

64. Faculty of Medicine, UNSW, Sydney, Australia

65. Department of Epidemiology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Doctor Molewaterplein 40, Rotterdam, the Netherlands

66. Bristol Neuroscience, Bristol University, Queens Road, Bristol, UK

67. Department of Psychiatry, University of Oxford, Warneford Hospital, Warneford Lane, Oxford, UK

68. The Institute for Health and Care Research, VU University Medical Center, De Boelelaan 1085, Amsterdam, the Netherlands

69. Kyushu University, 744 Motooka Nishi-ku, Fukuoka, Japan

70. Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, MedStar Health Research Institute, 6525 Belcrest Road, Hyattsville, MD, USA

71. Clinical Biostatistics, Merck, 2000 Galloping Hill Road, Kenilworth, NJ, USA

72. Centre de Recherche des Cordeliers, INSERM, 15 rue de l'Ecole de Médecine, Paris, France

73. Institute of Epidemiology & Health, University College London, 1-19 Torrington Place, London, UK

74. Deutsches Herzzentrum München, Technische Universität München, 21 Arcisstraße, Munich, Germany

75. DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance, Biedersteiner Str. 29, Munich, Germany

76. Department of Social and Environmental Medicine, Kanazawa Medical University, 1-1 Daigaku, Uchinada, Ishikawa, Japan

77. Department of Internal Medicine, University Medical Centre Groningen, University of Grogingen, Hanzeplein 1, Groningen, the Netherlands

78. Klinikum der Universität München, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, 15 Marchioninistraße, Munich, Germany

79. Clinical Diabetes and Epidemiology, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, 75 Commercial Rd, Melbourne, Australia

80. Department of Public Health, University of Tromsø, Hansine Hansens veg 18, Tromsø, Norway

81. Chiba Prefectural Institute of Public Health, 666-2 Nito-no-machi Chuo-ku, Chiba, Japan

82. Department for Determinants of Chronic Diseases, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Antonie van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

83. Noncommunicable Diseases, Disability, Violence and Injury Prevention Department, World Health Organization, 20 Avenue Appia, Geneva 27, Switzerland

84. School of Medicine, Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin, College Green, Dublin 2, Ireland

85. Department of Preventive Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, 420 East Superior Street, Chicago, IL, USA

86. The George Institute for Global Health, University of Oxford, 75 George Street, Oxford, UK

87. The George Institute for Global Health, University of New South Wales, 1 King Street Newtown, Sydney, Australia

88. Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, Norfolk Place, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London, UK

89. Cardiovascular Health Research Unit, University of Washington, 1730 Minor Avenue, Seattle, WA, USA

90. Institute of Cardiovascular & Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, 126 University Place, Glasgow, UK

91. Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland, 261 Morrin Road, Auckland, New Zealand

92. Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, 900 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA, USA

93. Mathematics and Statistics Department, Boston University, 111 Cummington Mall, Boston, MA, USA

Funder

UK Medical Research Council

British Heart Foundation

British Heart Foundation Cambridge Cardiovascular Centre of Excellence

UK National Institute

Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre

European Research Council

European Commission Framework Programme 7

Medical Research Council

Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research

Erasmus Mundus Western Balkans

European Commission

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine

Reference38 articles.

1. Statin use for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in adults: US preventive services task force recommendation statement;JAMA,2016

2. Cardiovascular risk-estimation systems in primary prevention: do they differ? Do they make a difference? Can we see the future?;Cooney;Circulation,2010

3. 2013 ACC/AHA guideline on the treatment of blood cholesterol to reduce atherosclerotic cardiovascular risk in adults. A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Practice Guidelines;Stone;J Am Coll Cardiol,2014

4. 2013 ACC/AHA guideline on the assessment of cardiovascular risk. A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Practice Guidelines. Circulation;Goff,2014

5. 2016 European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice: the Sixth Joint Task Force of the European Society of Cardiology and Other Societies on Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in Clinical Practice (constituted by representatives of 10 societies and by invited experts). Developed with the special contribution of the European Association for Cardiovascular Prevention & Rehabilitation (EACPR);Piepoli;Eur Heart J,2016

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