Negligible risk of the COVID-19 resurgence caused by work resuming in China (outside Hubei): a statistical probability study

Author:

Zhao Kedong1,Long Cheng2,Wang Yan1,Zeng Tieyong3,Fu Xinmiao1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Provincial University Key Laboratory of Cellular Stress Response and Metabolic Regulation, College of Life Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, Fujian 350117, China

2. Department of Orthopaedic, Sichuan University West China Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China

3. Department of Mathematics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong

Abstract

Abstract The COVID-19 outbreak in China appears to reach the late stage since late March 2020, and a stepwise restoration of economic operations is implemented. Risk assessment for such economic restoration is of significance. Here, we estimated the probability of COVID-19 resurgence caused by work resuming in typical provinces/cities and found that such probability is very limited (<5% for all the regions except Beijing). Our work may inform provincial governments to make risk level-based, differentiated control measures.

Funder

National Natural Science Foundation of China

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health,General Medicine

Reference5 articles.

1. The epidemiological characteristics of an oubreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) in China;Epidemiology Working Group for NCIP epidemic Response, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention;Chin J Epidemiol,2020

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