Probabilistic Quantitative Assessment of Coronary Heart Disease Risk From Dietary Exposure to Industrially Produced Trans-Fatty Acids in Partially Hydrogenated Oils

Abstract

Abstract We conducted a probabilistic evaluation of changes in coronary heart disease (CHD) risk and public health burdens from industrially produced trans-fatty acids (IP-TFAs) exposure from the uses of partially hydrogenated oils in food. Our analyses used four quantitative methods based on human studies considering the uncertainty associated with risk parameters for CHD and IP-TFA daily dietary exposure of 0.05% of energy. Method 1 used experimental controlled feeding trial data for changes in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol; Method 2 used changes in both low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; Method 3 used changes in a combination of three emerging CHD risk factor biomarkers; and method 4 used prospective observational studies of CHD cases associated with long-term dietary exposure of trans-fatty acids. We estimated mean percent changes in CHD risk and annual CHD cases in U.S. adults, with lower and upper 95% uncertainty intervals. Our results show that consuming 0.05% of energy from IP-TFA, instead of cis-monounsaturated fatty acids, can cause annual mean increases in CHD cases of 814 (510–1151, method 1), 1502 (990–2043, method 2), or 6877 (3611–10 694, method 4) in U.S. adults. Results for method 3 were intermediate between those for methods 2 and 4. Sensitivity analyses using alternate risk parameters or an alternate exposure scenario resulted in minor changes in public health burden estimates. The results demonstrate that IP-TFA exposure as low as 0.05% of energy from partially hydrogenated oil uses in food can cause substantial public health burdens in the United States from increased CHD risk.