Risk Factors for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Death in a Population Cohort Study from the Western Cape Province, South Africa-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Risk Factors for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Death in a Population Cohort Study from the Western Cape Province, South Africa

Published:2020-08-29 Issue:7 Volume:73 Page:e2005-e2015
ISSN:1058-4838
Container-title:Clinical Infectious Diseases
language:en
Short-container-title:

Author:

,Boulle Andrew¹²,Davies Mary-Ann¹²,Hussey Hannah¹³,Ismail Muzzammil¹³,Morden Erna¹³,Vundle Ziyanda¹⁴,Zweigenthal Virginia¹³,Mahomed Hassan⁴⁵,Paleker Masudah⁴⁵,Pienaar David⁶,Tembo Yamanya³⁶,Lawrence Charlene⁷,Isaacs Washiefa⁷,Mathema Hlengani⁷⁸,Allen Derick²,Allie Taryn¹²,Bam Jamy-Lee¹,Buddiga Kasturi¹²,Dane Pierre¹²,Heekes Alexa¹²,Matlapeng Boitumelo¹²,Mutemaringa Themba¹²,Muzarabani Luckmore¹²,Phelanyane Florence¹²,Pienaar Rory¹,Rode Catherine¹²,Smith Mariette¹²,Tiffin Nicki¹²⁹¹⁰,Zinyakatira Nesbert¹³,Cragg Carol¹¹,Marais Frederick¹¹¹²,Mudaly Vanessa³¹¹,Voget Jacqueline¹¹,Davids Jody¹³,Roodt Francois¹³,van Zyl Smit Nellis¹³,Vermeulen Alda¹³,Adams Kevin¹⁴¹⁵,Audley Gordon¹⁴¹⁶,Bateman Kathleen¹⁴¹⁶,Beckwith Peter¹⁴¹⁶,Bernon Marc¹⁴¹⁵,Blom Dirk¹⁴¹⁶,Boloko Linda¹⁴¹⁶,Botha Jean¹⁴¹⁶,Boutall Adam¹⁴¹⁵,Burmeister Sean¹⁴¹⁵,Cairncross Lydia¹⁴¹⁵,Calligaro Gregory¹⁴¹⁶,Coccia Cecilia¹⁴¹⁶,Corin Chadwin¹⁴¹⁶,Daroowala Remy¹⁴¹⁵,Dave Joel A¹⁴¹⁶,De Bruyn Elsa¹⁴¹⁶,De Villiers Martin¹⁴¹⁶,Deetlefs Mimi¹⁴¹⁶,Dlamini Sipho¹⁴¹⁶,Du Toit Thomas¹⁴¹⁶,Endres Wilhelm¹⁴¹⁶,Europa Tarin¹⁴¹⁶,Fieggan Graham¹⁴¹⁵,Figaji Anthony¹⁴¹⁵,Frankenfeld Petro¹⁴¹⁶,Gatley Elizabeth¹⁴¹⁶,Gina Phindile¹⁴¹⁶,Govender Evashan¹⁴¹⁶,Grobler Rochelle¹⁴¹⁶,Gule Manqoba Vusumuzi¹⁴¹⁶,Hanekom Christoff¹⁴¹⁶,Held Michael¹⁴¹⁶,Heynes Alana¹⁴¹⁶,Hlatswayo Sabelo¹⁴¹⁶,Hodkinson Bridget¹⁴¹⁶,Holtzhausen Jeanette¹⁴,Hoosain Shakeel¹⁴¹⁶,Jacobs Ashely¹⁴¹⁶,Kahn Miriam¹⁴¹⁵,Kahn Thania¹⁴¹⁶,Khamajeet Arvin¹⁴¹⁵,Khan Joubin¹⁴¹⁶,Khan Riaasat¹⁴¹⁶,Khwitshana Alicia¹⁴¹⁶,Knight Lauren¹⁴¹⁶,Kooverjee Sharita¹⁴¹⁶,Krogscheepers Rene¹⁴¹⁶,Kruger Jean Jacque¹⁴¹⁶,Kuhn Suzanne¹⁴¹⁶,Laubscher Kim¹⁴¹⁵,Lazarus John¹⁴¹⁵,Le Roux Jacque¹⁴¹⁶,Lee Jones Scott¹⁴¹⁶,Levin Dion¹⁴¹⁶,Maartens Gary¹⁴¹⁶,Majola Thina¹⁴¹⁶,Manganyi Rodgers¹⁴¹⁶,Marais David¹⁴¹⁶,Marais Suzaan¹⁴¹⁶,Maritz Francois¹⁴¹⁵,Maughan Deborah¹⁴¹⁶,Mazondwa Simthandile¹⁴¹⁶,Mbanga Luyanda¹⁴¹⁶,Mbatani Nomonde¹⁴¹⁶,Mbena Bulewa¹⁴¹⁶,Meintjes Graeme¹⁴¹⁶,Mendelson Marc¹⁴¹⁶,Möller Ernst¹⁴¹⁶,Moore Allison¹⁴¹⁵,Ndebele Babalwa¹⁴¹⁶,Nortje Marc¹⁴¹⁵,Ntusi Ntobeko¹⁴¹⁶,Nyengane Funeka¹⁴¹⁶,Ofoegbu Chima¹⁴¹⁵,Papavarnavas Nectarios¹⁴¹⁶,Peter Jonny¹⁴¹⁶,Pickard Henri¹⁴¹⁵,Pluke Kent¹⁴¹⁵,Raubenheimer Peter J¹⁴¹⁶,Robertson Gordon¹⁴¹⁶,Rozmiarek Julius¹⁴¹⁶,Sayed A¹⁴¹⁶,Scriba Matthias¹⁴¹⁵,Sekhukhune Hennie¹⁴¹⁶,Singh Prasun¹⁴¹⁶,Smith Elsabe¹⁴¹⁶,Soldati Vuyolwethu¹⁴¹⁵,Stek Cari¹⁴¹⁶,van den berg Robert¹⁴¹⁶,van der Merwe Le Roux¹⁴¹⁶,Venter Pieter¹⁴¹⁵,Vermooten Barbra¹⁴¹⁶,Viljoen Gerrit¹⁴¹⁶,Viranna Santhuri¹⁴¹⁶,Vogel Jonno¹⁴¹⁶,Vundla Nokubonga¹⁴¹⁶,Wasserman Sean¹⁴¹⁶,Zitha Eddy¹⁴¹⁶,Lomas-Marais Vanessa¹⁷,Lombard Annie¹⁷,Stuve Katrin¹⁷,Viljoen Werner¹⁷,Basson De Vries¹⁸,Le Roux Sue¹⁸,Linden-Mars Ethel¹⁸,Victor Lizanne¹⁸,Wates Mark¹⁸,Zwanepoel Elbe¹⁸,Ebrahim Nabilah¹⁹,Lahri Sa’ad¹⁹,Mnguni Ayanda¹⁹,Crede Thomas²⁰,de Man Martin²⁰²¹,Evans Katya²⁰²¹,Hendrikse Clint²⁰²¹,Naude Jonathan²⁰,Parak Moosa²⁰²¹,Szymanski Patrick²⁰,Van Koningsbruggen Candice²⁰²¹,Abrahams Riezaah²²²³,Allwood Brian²²²³,Botha Christoffel²²²³,Botha Matthys Henndrik²²²⁴,Broadhurst Alistair²²²³,Claasen Dirkie²²²³,Daniel Che²²²³,Dawood Riyaadh²²²³,du Preez Marie²²²³,Du Toit Nicolene²²²⁴,Erasmus Kobie²²²⁵,Koegelenberg Coenraad F N²²²³,Gabriel Shiraaz²²²³,Hugo Susan²²²³,Jardine Thabiet²²²³,Johannes Clint²²²³,Karamchand Sumanth²²²³,Lalla Usha²²²³,Langenegger Eduard²²²⁴,Louw Eize²²²³,Mashigo Boitumelo²²²³,Mhlana Nonte²²²³,Mnqwazi Chizama²²²³,Moodley Ashley²²²⁴,Moodley Desiree²²²³,Moolla Saadiq²²²³,Mowlana Abdurasiet²²²³,Nortje Andre²²²³,Olivier Elzanne²²²⁴,Parker Arifa²²²³,Paulsen Chané²²²³,Prozesky Hans²²²³,Rood Jacques²²²³,Sabela Tholakele²²²³,Schrueder Neshaad²²²³,Sithole Nokwanda²²²³,Sithole Sthembiso²²²³,Taljaard Jantjie J²²²³,Titus Gideon²²²³,Van Der Merwe Tian²²²⁴,van Schalkwyk Marije²²²³,Vazi Luthando²²²³,Viljoen Abraham J²²²³,Yazied Chothia Mogamat²²²³,Naidoo Vanessa²⁵,Wallis Lee Alan²⁵²¹,Abbass Mumtaz²⁶,Arendse Juanita²⁶,Armien Rizqa²⁶,Bailey Rochelle²⁶,Bello Muideen²⁶,Carelse Rachel²⁶,Forgus Sheron²⁶,Kalawe Nosi²⁶,Kariem Saadiq²⁶,Kotze Mariska²⁶,Lucas Jonathan²⁶,McClaughlin Juanita²⁶,Murie Kathleen²⁶,Najjaar Leilah²⁶,Petersen Liesel²⁶,Porter James²⁶,Shaw Melanie²⁶,Stapar Dusica²⁶,Williams Michelle²⁶,Aldum Linda²⁷,Berkowitz Natacha²⁷,Girran Raakhee²⁷,Lee Kevin²⁷,Naidoo Lenny²⁷,Neumuller Caroline²⁷,Anderson Kim²,Begg Kerrin³,Boerlage Lisa³,Cornell Morna²,de Waal Renée²,Dudley Lilian⁵,English René⁵,Euvrard Jonathan²,Groenewald Pam²⁸,Jacob Nisha³,Jaspan Heather²⁹,Kalk Emma²,Levitt Naomi¹⁶,Malaba Thoko³,Nyakato Patience²,Patten Gabriela²,Schneider Helen³⁰,Shung King Maylene³,Tsondai Priscilla²,Van Duuren James³,van Schaik Nienke,Blumberg Lucille⁸³¹,Cohen Cheryl⁸³²,Govender Nelesh⁸³³,Jassat Waasila⁸,Kufa Tendesayi⁸,McCarthy Kerrigan⁸,Morris Lynn⁸³⁴,Hsiao Nei-yuan³⁵,Marais Ruan³⁵,Ambler Jon⁹,Ngwenya Olina⁹,Osei-Yeboah Richard¹⁰,Johnson Leigh²,Kassanjee Reshma²,Tamuhla Tsaone¹⁰

Affiliation:

1. Health Impact Assessment, Western Cape Government: Health

2. Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Research, School of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape Town

3. School of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape Town

4. Division of Health Systems and Public Health, Department of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University

5. Metro Health Services, Western Cape Government: Health

6. Rural Health Services, Western Cape Government: Health

7. Communicable Disease Sub-Directorate, Western Cape Government: Health

8. National Institute for Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Service, South Africa

9. Wellcome Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Africa, University of Cape Town

10. Division of Computational Biology, University of Cape Town

11. Health Programmes Directorate, Western Cape Government: Health

12. Faculty of Health Sciences, North West University

13. George Hospital, Western Cape Government: Health

14. Groote Schuur Hospital, Western Cape Government: Health

15. Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town

16. Department of Surgery, University of Cape Town

17. Department of Radiology, University of Cape Town

18. Karl Bremer Hospital, Western Cape Government: Health

19. Khayelitsha District Hospital, Western Cape Government: Health

20. Mitchells Plain and Heideveld Hospitals, Western Cape Government: Health

21. Division of Emergency Medicine, University of Cape Town

22. Tygerberg Hospital, Western Cape Government: Health

23. Department of Medicine, Stellenbosch University

24. Department of Obstetrics and Gyneacology, Stellenbosch University

25. Emergency Medical Services, Western Cape Government

26. Western Cape Government: Health

27. City Health, Community Services and Health, City of Cape Town

28. South African Medical Research Council Burden of Disease Research Unit

29. Division of Immunology and Institute of Infectious Diseases and Molecular Medicine, University of Cape Town

30. School of Public Health, University of the Western Cape

31. University of Pretoria

32. School of Public Health, University of Witwatersrand

33. School of Pathology, University of the Witwatersrand and School of Pathology, University of Cape Town

34. University of Witwatersrand, South African Medical Research Council Antibody Immunity Research Unit and the Centre for the AIDS Programme in South Africa (CAPRISA)

35. National Health Laboratory Service and Division of Virology, School of Pathology, University of Cape Town

Abstract

Abstract Background Risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) death in sub-Saharan Africa and the effects of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis on COVID-19 outcomes are unknown. Methods We conducted a population cohort study using linked data from adults attending public-sector health facilities in the Western Cape, South Africa. We used Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, sex, location, and comorbidities, to examine the associations between HIV, tuberculosis, and COVID-19 death from 1 March to 9 June 2020 among (1) public-sector “active patients” (≥1 visit in the 3 years before March 2020); (2) laboratory-diagnosed COVID-19 cases; and (3) hospitalized COVID-19 cases. We calculated the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for COVID-19, comparing adults living with and without HIV using modeled population estimates. Results Among 3 460 932 patients (16% living with HIV), 22 308 were diagnosed with COVID-19, of whom 625 died. COVID-19 death was associated with male sex, increasing age, diabetes, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease. HIV was associated with COVID-19 mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.70–2.70), with similar risks across strata of viral loads and immunosuppression. Current and previous diagnoses of tuberculosis were associated with COVID-19 death (aHR, 2.70 [95% CI, 1.81–4.04] and 1.51 [95% CI, 1.18–1.93], respectively). The SMR for COVID-19 death associated with HIV was 2.39 (95% CI, 1.96–2.86); population attributable fraction 8.5% (95% CI, 6.1–11.1). Conclusions While our findings may overestimate HIV- and tuberculosis-associated COVID-19 mortality risks due to residual confounding, both living with HIV and having current tuberculosis were independently associated with increased COVID-19 mortality. The associations between age, sex, and other comorbidities and COVID-19 mortality were similar to those in other settings.

Funder

National Institutes for Health

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

United States Agency for International Development

Wellcome Trust

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

Infectious Diseases,Microbiology (medical)

Link

http://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1198/36623384/ciaa1198.pdf

Reference29 articles.