Development and validation of a nomogram for renal involvement in primary Sjögren syndrome patients: A retrospective analysis

Abstract

ABSTRACT Objective To establish and validate a nomogram for individualized prediction of renal involvement in pSS patients. Methods A total of 1293 patients with pSS from the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University between January 2008 and January 2020 were recruited and analyzed retrospectively. The patients were randomly divided into development set (70%, n = 910) and validation set (30%, n = 383). The univariable and multivariate logistic regression were performed to analyze the risk factors of renal involvement in pSS. Based on the regression β coefficients derived from multivariate logistic analysis, an individualized nomogram prediction model was developed and subsequently evaluated by AUC and calibration plot. Results Multivariate logistic analysis showed that hypertension, anemia, albumin, uric acid, anti-Ro52, hematuria, and ChisholmMason grade were independent risk factors of renal involvement in pSS. The AUC were 0.797 and 0.750, respectively, in development set and validation set. The calibration plot showed nomogram had a strong concordance performance between the prediction probability and the actual probability. Conclusion The individualized nomogram for pSS patients those who had renal involvement could be used by clinicians to predict the risk of pSS patients developing into renal involvement and improve early screening and intervention.