Machine Learning-based Prediction Models for Diagnosis and Prognosis in Inflammatory Bowel Diseases: A Systematic Review

Abstract

Abstract Background and Aims There is increasing interest in machine learning-based prediction models in inflammatory bowel diseases [IBD]. We synthesised and critically appraised studies comparing machine learning vs traditional statistical models, using routinely available clinical data for risk prediction in IBD. Methods Through a systematic review till January 1, 2021, we identified cohort studies that derived and/or validated machine learning models, based on routinely collected clinical data in patients with IBD, to predict the risk of harbouring or developing adverse clinical outcomes, and reported its predictive performance against a traditional statistical model for the same outcome. We appraised the risk of bias in these studies using the Prediction model Risk of Bias ASsessment [PROBAST] tool. Results We included 13 studies on machine learning-based prediction models in IBD, encompassing themes of predicting treatment response to biologics and thiopurines and predicting longitudinal disease activity and complications and outcomes in patients with acute severe ulcerative colitis. The most common machine learning models used were tree-based algorithms, which are classification approaches achieved through supervised learning. Machine learning models outperformed traditional statistical models in risk prediction. However, most models were at high risk of bias, and only one was externally validated. Conclusions Machine learning-based prediction models based on routinely collected data generally perform better than traditional statistical models in risk prediction in IBD, though frequently have high risk of bias. Future studies examining these approaches are warranted, with special focus on external validation and clinical applicability.