Estimation of the Time-Varying Effective Reproductive Number of COVID-19 Based on Multivariate Time Series of Severe Health Outcomes-Reference-Cited by-全球学者库

Estimation of the Time-Varying Effective Reproductive Number of COVID-19 Based on Multivariate Time Series of Severe Health Outcomes

Published:2023-10-10 Issue: Volume: Page:
ISSN:0022-1899
Container-title:The Journal of Infectious Diseases
language:en
Short-container-title:

Author:

Young Benjamin R¹,Ho Faith¹,Lin Yun¹,Lau Eric H Y¹²,Cowling Benjamin J¹²,Wu Peng¹²^ORCID,Tsang Tim K¹²

Affiliation:

1. World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong

2. Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Ltd, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park , China

Abstract

Abstract The time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt at time t) measures the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 and is conventionally based on daily case counts, which may suffer from time-varying ascertainment. We analyzed Rt estimates from case counts and severe COVID-19 (intensive care unit admissions, severe or critical cases, and mortality) across 2022 in Hong Kong's fifth and sixth waves of infection. Within the fifth wave, the severe disease–based Rt (3.5) was significantly higher than the case-based Rt (2.4) but not in the sixth wave. During periods with fluctuating underreporting, data based on severe diseases may provide more reliable Rt estimates.

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

Infectious Diseases,Immunology and Allergy

Link

https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiad445/52547767/jiad445.pdf

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