Results of a Nationally Representative Seroprevalence Survey of Chikungunya Virus in Bangladesh

Author:

Allen Sam W1,Ribeiro Dos Santos Gabriel1ORCID,Paul Kishor K234,Paul Repon45,Rahman Mohammad Ziaur4,Alam Mohammad Shafiul4,Rahman Mahmudur6,Al-Amin Hasan Mohammad478,Vanhomwegen Jessica9,Weaver Scott C10,Smull Taylor11,Lee Kyu Han12,Gurley Emily S11,Salje Henrik1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge , Cambridge , United Kingdom

2. Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales , Sydney , Australia

3. School of Population Health, University of New South Wales , Sydney, New South Wales , Australia

4. One Health Laboratory, icddr,b , Dhaka , Bangladesh

5. Centre for Big Data Research in Health, University of New South Wales , Sydney, New South Wales , Australia

6. Global Health Development , EMPHNET, Dhaka , Bangladesh

7. QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, The University of Queensland , Herston , Australia

8. School of the Environment, The University of Queensland , Herston, Queensland , Australia

9. Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, Unité Environnement et Risques Infectieux, Cellule d'Intervention Biologique d'Urgence (CIBU) , 75015 Paris , France

10. Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch , Galveston, Texas , USA

11. Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health , Maryland, Baltimore , USA

12. Emory Global Health Institute, Emory University , Atlanta, Georgia , USA

Abstract

Abstract There is an increasing global burden from chikungunya virus (CHIKV). Bangladesh reported a major epidemic in 2017, but it was unclear whether there had been prior widespread transmission. We conducted a nationally representative seroprevalence survey in 70 randomly selected communities immediately before the epidemic. We found that 69 of 2938 sampled individuals (2.4%) were seropositive to CHIKV. Seropositivity to dengue virus (adjusted odds ratio, 3.13 [95% confidence interval, 1.86–5.27]), male sex (0.59 [.36–.99]), and community presence of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes (1.80 [1.05–3.0]7) were significantly associated with CHIKV seropositivity. Using a spatial prediction model, we estimated that across the country, 4.99 (95% confidence interval, 4.89–5.08) million people had been previously infected. These findings highlight high population susceptibility before the major outbreak and that previous outbreaks must have been spatially isolated.

Funder

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

National Institutes of Health

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

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