In Hot Water: Current Thermal Threshold Methods Unlikely to Predict Invasive Species Shifts in NW Atlantic

Abstract

Synopsis As global temperatures continue to rise, accurate predicted species distribution models will be important for forecasting the movement of range-shifting species. These predictions rely on measurements of organismal thermal tolerance, which can be measured using classical threshold concepts such as Arrhenius break temperatures and critical thermal temperatures, or through ecologically relevant measurements such as the temperature at which reproduction and growth occur. Many species, including invasive species, exhibit thermal plasticity, so these thresholds may change based on ambient temperature, life stage, and measurement techniques. Here, we review thermal thresholds for 15 invertebrate species invasive to the Gulf of Maine. The high degree of variability within a species and between applied conceptual frameworks suggests that modeling the future distribution of these species in all ecosystems, but especially in the rapidly warming northwest Atlantic and Gulf of Maine, will be challenging. While each of these measurement techniques is valid, we suggest contextualization and integration of threshold measurements for accurate modeling.