Integrative conformal p-values for out-of-distribution testing with labelled outliers

Author:

Liang Ziyi1,Sesia Matteo2ORCID,Sun Wenguang3

Affiliation:

1. Department of Mathematics, University of Southern California , Los Angeles, CA , USA

2. Department of Data Sciences and Operations, University of Southern California , Los Angeles, CA , USA

3. School of Management and Center for Data Science, Zhejiang University , Hangzhou , China

Abstract

Abstract This paper presents a conformal inference method for out-of-distribution testing that leverages side information from labelled outliers, which are commonly underutilized or even discarded by conventional conformal p-values. This solution is practical and blends inductive and transductive inference strategies to adaptively weight conformal p-values, while also automatically leveraging the most powerful model from a collection of one-class and binary classifiers. Further, this approach leads to rigorous false discovery rate control in multiple testing when combined with a conditional calibration strategy. Extensive numerical simulations show that the proposed method outperforms existing approaches.

Funder

National Science Foundation

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty,Statistics and Probability

Reference62 articles.

1. Predictive inference with the jackknife+;Barber;The Annals of Statistics,2021

2. Weighted false discovery rate control in large-scale multiple testing;Basu;Journal of the American Statistical Association,2018

3. Distribution-free, risk-controlling prediction sets;Bates;Journal of the ACM (JACM),2021

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