Model Selection Performance in Phylogenetic Comparative Methods Under Multivariate Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Models of Trait Evolution

Abstract

Abstract The advent of fast computational algorithms for phylogenetic comparative methods allows for considering multiple hypotheses concerning the co-adaptation of traits and also for studying if it is possible to distinguish between such models based on contemporary species measurements. Here we demonstrate how one can perform a study with multiple competing hypotheses using mvSLOUCH by analysing two data sets, one concerning feeding styles and oral morphology in ungulates, and the other concerning fruit evolution in Ferula (Apiaceae). We also perform simulations to determine if it is possible to distinguish between various adaptive hypotheses. We find that Akaike’s information criterion corrected for small sample size has the ability to distinguish between most pairs of considered models. However, in some cases there seems to be bias towards Brownian motion or simpler Ornstein–Uhlenbeck models. We also find that measurement error and forcing the sign of the diagonal of the drift matrix for an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process influences identifiability capabilities. It is a cliché that some models, despite being imperfect, are more useful than others. Nonetheless, having a much larger repertoire of models will surely lead to a better understanding of the natural world, as it will allow for dissecting in what ways they are wrong.