The influence of explicit local dynamics on range expansions driven by long-range dispersal

Abstract

AbstractRange expansions are common in natural populations. They can take such forms as an invasive species spreading into a new habitat or a virus spreading from host to host during a pandemic. When the expanding species is capable of dispersing offspring over long distances, population growth is driven by rare but consequential long-range dispersal events that seed satellite colonies far from the densely occupied core of the population. These satellites accelerate growth by accessing unoccupied territory, and also act as reservoirs for maintaining neutral genetic variation present in the originating population, which would ordinarily be lost to drift. Prior theoretical studies of dispersal-driven expansions have shown that the sequential establishment of satellites causes initial genetic diversity to be either lost or maintained to a level determined by the breadth of the distribution of dispersal distances. If the tail of the distribution falls off faster than a critical threshold, diversity is steadily eroded over time; by contrast, broader distributions with a slower falloff allow some initial diversity to be maintained for arbitrarily long times. However, these studies used lattice-based models and assumed an instantaneous saturation of the local carrying capacity after the arrival of a founder. Real-world populations expand in continuous space with complex local dynamics, which potentially allow multiple pioneers to arrive and establish within the same local region. Here, we evaluate the impact of local dynamics on the population growth and the evolution of neutral diversity using a computational model of range expansions with long-range dispersal in continuous space, with explicit local dynamics that can be controlled by altering the mix of local and long-range dispersal events. We found that many qualitative features of population growth and neutral genetic diversity observed in lattice-based models are preserved under more complex local dynamics, but quantitative aspects such as the rate of population growth, the level of maintained diversity, and the rate of decay of diversity all depend strongly on the local dynamics. Besides identifying situations in which modeling the explicit local population dynamics becomes necessary to understand the population structure of jump-driven range expansions, our results show that local dynamics affects different features of the population in distinct ways, and can be more or less consequential depending on the degree and form of long-range dispersal as well as the scale at which the population structure is measured.