Diagnostic Prediction of portal vein thrombosis in chronic cirrhosis patients using data-driven precision medicine model

Abstract

Abstract Background Portal vein thrombosis (PVT) is a significant issue in cirrhotic patients, necessitating early detection. This study aims to develop a data-driven predictive model for PVT diagnosis in chronic hepatitis liver cirrhosis patients. Methods We employed data from a total of 816 chronic cirrhosis patients with PVT, divided into the Lanzhou cohort (n = 468) for training and the Jilin cohort (n = 348) for validation. This dataset encompassed a wide range of variables, including general characteristics, blood parameters, ultrasonography findings and cirrhosis grading. To build our predictive model, we employed a sophisticated stacking approach, which included Support Vector Machine (SVM), Naïve Bayes and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA). Results In the Lanzhou cohort, SVM and Naïve Bayes classifiers effectively classified PVT cases from non-PVT cases, among the top features of which seven were shared: Portal Velocity (PV), Prothrombin Time (PT), Portal Vein Diameter (PVD), Prothrombin Time Activity (PTA), Activated Partial Thromboplastin Time (APTT), age and Child–Pugh score (CPS). The QDA model, trained based on the seven shared features on the Lanzhou cohort and validated on the Jilin cohort, demonstrated significant differentiation between PVT and non-PVT cases (AUROC = 0.73 and AUROC = 0.86, respectively). Subsequently, comparative analysis showed that our QDA model outperformed several other machine learning methods. Conclusion Our study presents a comprehensive data-driven model for PVT diagnosis in cirrhotic patients, enhancing clinical decision-making. The SVM–Naïve Bayes–QDA model offers a precise approach to managing PVT in this population.