Abstract
Abstract. Economic damage and life-loss estimates provide important
insights for the elaboration of more robust alerts and effective emergency
planning. On the one hand, accurate damage analysis supports decision-making
processes. On the other hand, the comparison of different flood alert
scenarios through modeling techniques is crucial for improving the
efficiency of alert and evacuation systems design. This work evaluates the
use of flood damage and life-loss models in floods caused by tailings dams
through the application of these models in the real case of the São
Francisco dam failure, which occurred in January 2007 in the city of
Miraí in Brazil. The model results showed great agreement with
observed damage and loss of life. Furthermore, different simulations were
done in order to measure the impact of increasing and decreasing alert
system efficiency on life-loss reduction. The simulated scenarios exploring
the inefficiency of flood alert and evacuation revealed that life loss could
have reached the maximum rate of 8.7 % of the directly exposed population
when considering the more pessimistic and uncertain scenario instead of the
actual null life loss achieved. The results of this work indicate that the
models could represent both the observed accident and different
alert and evacuation efficiency impacts. It highlights the importance of
developing and implementing robust alert and evacuation systems and
regulations in order to reduce flood impacts.
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
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