The ozone–climate penalty over South America and Africa by 2100

Author:

Brown Flossie,Folberth Gerd A.ORCID,Sitch Stephen,Bauer SusanneORCID,Bauters Marijn,Boeckx Pascal,Cheesman Alexander W.ORCID,Deushi MakotoORCID,Dos Santos Vieira InêsORCID,Galy-Lacaux Corinne,Haywood JamesORCID,Keeble JamesORCID,Mercado Lina M.ORCID,O'Connor Fiona M.ORCID,Oshima NagaORCID,Tsigaridis KostasORCID,Verbeeck HansORCID

Abstract

Abstract. Climate change has the potential to increase surface ozone (O3) concentrations, known as the “ozone–climate penalty”, through changes to atmospheric chemistry, transport and dry deposition. In the tropics, the response of surface O3 to changing climate is relatively understudied but has important consequences for air pollution and human and ecosystem health. In this study, we evaluate the change in surface O3 due to climate change over South America and Africa using three state-of-the-art Earth system models that follow the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 emission scenario from CMIP6. In order to quantify changes due to climate change alone, we evaluate the difference between simulations including climate change and simulations with a fixed present-day climate. We find that by 2100, models predict an ozone–climate penalty in areas where O3 is already predicted to be high due to the impacts of precursor emissions, namely urban and biomass burning areas, although on average, models predict a decrease in surface O3 due to climate change. We identify a small but robust positive trend in annual mean surface O3 over polluted areas. Additionally, during biomass burning seasons, seasonal mean O3 concentrations increase by 15 ppb (model range 12 to 18 ppb) in areas with substantial biomass burning such as the arc of deforestation in the Amazon. The ozone–climate penalty in polluted areas is shown to be driven by an increased rate of O3 chemical production, which is strongly influenced by NOx concentrations and is therefore specific to the emission pathway chosen. Multiple linear regression finds the change in NOx concentration to be a strong predictor of the change in O3 production, whereas increased isoprene emission rate is positively correlated with increased O3 destruction, suggesting NOx-limited conditions over the majority of tropical Africa and South America. However, models disagree on the role of climate change in remote, low-NOx regions, partly because of significant differences in NOx concentrations produced by each model. We also find that the magnitude and location of the ozone–climate penalty in the Congo Basin has greater inter-model variation than that in the Amazon, so further model development and validation are needed to constrain the response in central Africa. We conclude that if the climate were to change according to the emission scenario used here, models predict that forested areas in biomass burning locations and urban populations will be at increasing risk of high O3 exposure, irrespective of any direct impacts on O3 via the prescribed emission scenario.

Funder

UK Research and Innovation

Publisher

Copernicus GmbH

Subject

Atmospheric Science

Reference105 articles.

1. Adon, M., Galy-Lacaux, C., Yoboué, V., Delon, C., Lacaux, J. P., Castera, P., Gardrat, E., Pienaar, J., Al Ourabi, H., Laouali, D., Diop, B., Sigha-Nkamdjou, L., Akpo, A., Tathy, J. P., Lavenu, F., and Mougin, E.: Long term measurements of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, ammonia, nitric acid and ozone in Africa using passive samplers, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 7467–7487, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-7467-2010, 2010.

2. Adon, M., Galy-Lacaux, C., Delon, C., Yoboue, V., Solmon, F., and Kaptue Tchuente, A. T.: Dry deposition of nitrogen compounds (NO2, HNO3, NH3), sulfur dioxide and ozone in west and central African ecosystems using the inferential method, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11351–11374, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11351-2013, 2013.

3. Agathokleous, E., Belz, R. G., Calatayud, V., de Marco, A., Hoshika, Y., Kitao, M., Saitanis, C. J., Sicard, P., Paoletti, E., and Calabrese, E. J.: Predicting the effect of O3 on vegetation via linear non-threshold (LNT), threshold and hormetic dose-response models, Sci. Total Environ., 649, 61–74, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.264, 2019.

4. Archibald, A. T., Jenkin, M. E., and Shallcross, D. E.: An isoprene mechanism intercomparison, Atmos. Environ., 44, 5356–5364, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.09.016, 2010.

5. Archibald, A. T., O'Connor, F. M., Abraham, N. L., Archer-Nicholls, S., Chipperfield, M. P., Dalvi, M., Folberth, G. A., Dennison, F., Dhomse, S. S., Griffiths, P. T., Hardacre, C., Hewitt, A. J., Hill, R. S., Johnson, C. E., Keeble, J., Köhler, M. O., Morgenstern, O., Mulcahy, J. P., Ordóñez, C., Pope, R. J., Rumbold, S. T., Russo, M. R., Savage, N. H., Sellar, A., Stringer, M., Turnock, S. T., Wild, O., and Zeng, G.: Description and evaluation of the UKCA stratosphere–troposphere chemistry scheme (StratTrop vn 1.0) implemented in UKESM1, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1223–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020, 2020a.

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3