Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a)
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Published:2024-01-04
Issue:1
Volume:17
Page:1-51
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ISSN:1991-9603
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Container-title:Geoscientific Model Development
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Geosci. Model Dev.
Author:
Frieler Katja, Volkholz JanORCID, Lange Stefan, Schewe JacobORCID, Mengel MatthiasORCID, del Rocío Rivas López MaríaORCID, Otto Christian, Reyer Christopher P. O.ORCID, Karger Dirk Nikolaus, Malle Johanna T.ORCID, Treu SimonORCID, Menz Christoph, Blanchard Julia L., Harrison Cheryl S., Petrik Colleen M., Eddy Tyler D.ORCID, Ortega-Cisneros KellyORCID, Novaglio Camilla, Rousseau Yannick, Watson Reg A., Stock Charles, Liu Xiao, Heneghan RyanORCID, Tittensor Derek, Maury Olivier, Büchner Matthias, Vogt ThomasORCID, Wang Tingting, Sun Fubao, Sauer Inga J., Koch JohannesORCID, Vanderkelen InneORCID, Jägermeyr Jonas, Müller ChristophORCID, Rabin SamORCID, Klar Jochen, Vega del Valle Iliusi D.ORCID, Lasslop Gitta, Chadburn SarahORCID, Burke EleanorORCID, Gallego-Sala Angela, Smith NoahORCID, Chang JinfengORCID, Hantson StijnORCID, Burton ChantelleORCID, Gädeke AnneORCID, Li FangORCID, Gosling Simon N.ORCID, Müller Schmied HannesORCID, Hattermann Fred, Wang JidaORCID, Yao Fangfang, Hickler Thomas, Marcé RafaelORCID, Pierson DonORCID, Thiery WimORCID, Mercado-Bettín DanielORCID, Ladwig RobertORCID, Ayala-Zamora Ana IsabelORCID, Forrest MatthewORCID, Bechtold MichelORCID
Abstract
Abstract. This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human, and managed systems to climate change, rising CH4 and CO2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6.
Funder
European Cooperation in Science and Technology
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
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