Validation of new satellite rainfall products over the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

Abstract. Accurate measurement of rainfall is vital to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation at various scales. However, the conventional rain gauge observations in many parts of the world such as Ethiopia are sparse and unevenly distributed. An alternative to traditional rain gauge observations could be satellite-based rainfall estimates. Satellite rainfall estimates could be used as a sole product (e.g. in areas with no (poor) ground observations) or through integrating with rain gauge measurements. In this study, the newly available Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data has been evaluated in comparison to rain gauge data for the period of 2000 to 2015 across the Upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia. Besides, the Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite and ground-based observations (TAMSAT) version 2 and 3 (TAMSAT 2 and TAMSAT 3) and the African Rainfall Climatology (ARC 2) products have been used as a benchmark and compared with CHIRPS. The TAMSAT 2 rainfall estimate was used in this study mainly to assess the improvements made with the recent version of a TAMSAT product (TAMSAT 3). From the overall analysis at dekadal and monthly temporal scale, CHIRPS exhibited higher skills and the best bias value in comparison to ARC 2 but overestimates the frequency of rainfall occurrence particularly during the dry months. On the other hand, TAMSAT 3 has shown very comparable performance with that of CHIRPS product, particularly with regards to bias. The ARC 2 product was found to have the weakest performance underestimating rainfall amounts by about 24 %. The skill of CHIRPS is less affected by variation in elevation in comparison to TAMSAT 3 and ARC 2 products. While ARC 2 was found to be affected by elevation with the average biases of 1.53, 0.86 and 0.77 at lower ( 2000 m a.s.l), respectively. Comparing the overall performance of the three products, CHIRPS exhibited the best performance followed closely by TAMSAT 3. This validation study also shows that the TAMSAT 3 has overcome the main weaknesses of TAMSAT 2, which is underestimation of high rainfall amounts by up to 31 % in this study. Overall, the finding of this validation study shows the potentials of CHIRPS product to be used for various operational applications such as rainfall pattern and variability study in the Upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia.