Abstract
Background
In Japan, as a countermeasure against the COVID-19 outbreak, both the national and local governments issued voluntary restrictions against going out from residences at the end of March 2020 in preference to the lockdowns instituted in European and North American countries. The effect of such measures can be studied with mobility data, such as data which is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities.
Objective
We investigate the associations of mobility data provided by Apple Inc and an estimate an an effective reproduction number R(t).
Methods
We regressed R(t) on a polynomial function of daily Apple data, estimated using the whole period, and analyzed subperiods delimited by March 10, 2020.
Results
In the estimation results, R(t) was 1.72 when voluntary restrictions against going out ceased and mobility reverted to a normal level. However, the critical level of reducing R(t) to <1 was obtained at 89.3% of normal mobility.
Conclusions
We demonstrated that Apple mobility data are useful for short-term prediction of R(t). The results indicate that the number of trips should decrease by 10% until herd immunity is achieved and that higher voluntary restrictions against going out might not be necessary for avoiding a re-emergence of the outbreak.
Subject
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health,Health Informatics
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