Comparative mathematical analysis of nonhereditary risk and anti-risk factors between patients with multiple sclerosis and their practically healthy children based on anamnesis data

Abstract

Purpose: to identify and systematise nonhereditary risk and anti-risk factors that promote and prevent the development of multiple sclerosis (MS) based on a systematic comparative mathematical analysis of anamnestic data between patients with sporadic and familial forms of MS and practically healthy adult children born to sick parents. Research methods: questionnaire survey; methods of mathematical statistics (mean values, confidence interval); permutation test; odds ratio (OR). A total of 97 patients with MS were examined: sporadic form — 56, familial form — 42, practically healthy children — 40. The analysis of obstetric and gynecological, premorbid anamnesis, and lifestyle indicators was carried out using specially designed questionnaires. Using the permutation method and OR > 1, differentiated patterns of reliable anamnestic data were obtained, which were considered as conditional risk factors (RFs) and protective anti-risk factors (AFs). Combinations of premorbid history and lifestyle indicators, as well as quantitative differences between the RFs, were identified. The significant predominance of RFs over AFs indicates that nonhereditary factors do not prevent the development of MS and do not exclude the risk of its development in practically healthy children born with a hereditary burden of MS. Key words: multiple sclerosis, risk factors, anti-risk factors, healthy adult children, mathematical analysis