Assessment of the greenhouse gases emissions reduction by the coal sector of Ukraine to meet international climate agreements

Abstract

According to data from the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, the coal sector is the second largest source of methane emissions in Ukraine after the oil and gas sector, its share in 2019 amounted to 17.8% of total methane emissions in the country. In 2022, Ukraine, as a Party to the Paris Agreement, submitted an updated value of the nationally determined contribution - to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 to 35% compared to 1990. In addition, it was formally launched the Global Methane Pledge, an initiative to reduce global methane emissions. Ukraine has joined this Pledge and make commitments to reduce methane emissions by 30% from 2020 levels by 2030. To assess the country's ability to meet its commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in general and methane in particular, forecasts of the functioning of the coal sector were developed both in Ukraine and in the temporarily occupied territories on December 1, 2021. In decarbonisation scenario the development of the economic also took into account the commitment made by Ukraine at the 26th Conference of the Parties to stop the construction of new coal-fired power plants and to abandon the use of coal fuel by 2035. The dynamics of mine closure was analyzed according to the scenarios considered, and methane emissions were calculated not only from operating mines, but also from decommissioned mines. The results of the calculations show that achieving the declared reduction of methane emissions by 2030 in the coal sector is possible only if the capture and utilization of this greenhouse gas from the current 10.3% to 37-54% for different scenarios of the sector, which will require additional investment from 10 to 26.9 billion USA dollars depending on the scenario. Keywords: Greenhouses gases, Coal sector, Global Methane Pledge, second Nationally Determined Contribution