Irrelevant Conjunction: Statement and Solution of a New Paradox

Abstract

The so-called problem of irrelevant conjunction has been seen as a serious challenge for theories of confirmation. It involves the consequences of conjoining irrelevant statements to a hypothesis that is confirmed by some piece of evidence. Following Hawthorne and Fitelson, we reconstruct the problem with reference to Bayesian confirmation theory. Then we extend it to the case of conjoining irrelevant statements to a hypothesis that is disconfirmed by some piece of evidence. As a consequence, we obtain and formally present a novel and more troublesome problem of irrelevant conjunction. We conclude by indicating a possible solution based on a measure-sensitive approach and by critically discussing a major alternative way to address the problem.