A Population-Based Cohort Study on Chronic Comorbidity Risk Factors for Adverse Dengue Outcomes

Abstract

ABSTRACT. The global burden of dengue is increasing against a background of rising global prevalence of chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and an epidemiological shift of dengue toward older age groups. The contribution of NCDs toward risk for adverse clinical and healthcare utilization outcomes was assessed in a national linked-database study. About 51,433 adult dengue cases between 2014 and 2015 were assessed for outpatient and inpatient claims data in Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database for the 30 days after their dengue diagnosis. A multivariable logistic regression with generalized estimating equations was used to estimate the probability of adverse dengue outcomes in patients with NCDs compared with dengue patients without underlying diseases. Rheumatoid arthritis and related disease were associated with the highest risk of hospitalization after dengue diagnosis (odds ratio: 1.78; 95% CI: 1.37–2.30), followed by stroke, chronic kidney disease (CKD), liver cirrhosis, asthma, coronary artery disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, congestive heart failure, hypertension, and malignancy. Chronic kidney disease and diabetes were associated with higher risks of hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) use, and all-cause mortality. After adjusting for socioeconomic status and other variables, the number of coexisting chronic diseases was associated with increasing risk of adverse dengue outcomes. Specific NCDs were associated with longer hospitalizations, ICU admission, and higher healthcare costs. Quantifying the risks of adverse dengue outcomes and health expenditures among dengue patients with preexisting NCDs provides insights for improved clinical management and essential inputs for health economic analyses on the cost-benefit of risk-based routine or catch-up immunization programs.