Child Health and the Pediatric Pulmonology Workforce: 2020–2040

Abstract

There is concern as to whether the supply of pediatric pulmonology (PULM) subspecialists will be adequate to meet future demand. As part of an American Board of Pediatrics (ABP) Foundation-sponsored supplement investigating the future of the pediatric subspecialty workforce, this article assesses the current PULM clinical workforce and estimates the clinical workforce supply in the United States through 2040. The current workforce was assessed using ABP certification and Maintenance of Certification data, and a workforce supply model evaluating population growth, clinical effort, and geographic trends was developed after incorporating ABP data. Findings demonstrate that the number of pediatric pulmonologists has gradually increased over the past decade, and the ratio of subspecialists to children is likely to increase another 20% to 40% over the next 2 decades, although absolute numbers remain small. Geographic variation in access will persist in some regions. The proportion of women in the discipline has increased, but the proportion of pediatric pulmonologists from underrepresented in medicine backgrounds still lags behind the general population. Based on current trends, the PULM clinical workforce appears equipped to meet both population growth and the modest increase in demand for clinical services speculated to occur because of changes in the subspecialty’s clinical portfolio. However, several factors could inhibit growth, and geographic maldistribution may continue to impact care access. Efforts to address variation in access and demographic diversity in the field are warranted. This article concludes by discussing the training, clinical practice, policy, and future workforce research implications of the data presented.