Spatiotemporal Variations in Precipitation Forecasting Skill of Three Global Subseasonal Prediction Products over China

Abstract

Abstract Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictions, which bridge the gap between weather forecasts and climate outlooks, have the great societal benefits of improving water resource management and food security. However, there are tremendous disparities in the forecasting skills of subseasonal precipitation prediction products. This study investigates the spatiotemporal variations in the precipitation forecasting skill of three subseasonal prediction products from the CMA, ECMWF, and NCEP over China. Daily precipitation predictions with lead times ranging from 1 to 30 days and cumulative precipitation predictions over 1–30 days were evaluated in nine major river basins. The daily prediction skill rapidly declines with lead time. In contrast, the correlation coefficient between the cumulative precipitation predictions and corresponding observations increases at first and peaks at 0.7–0.8 after 3–5 days, then gradually decreases and settles at approximately 0.2–0.6. Among the three evaluated models, the ECMWF model demonstrates the best skill, maintaining a correlation coefficient of approximately 0.5 for 2-week cumulative precipitation. Moreover, the correlation coefficient of the model’s prediction is 0.2–0.5 higher than that of the climatological prediction over a large domain for the 30-day cumulative precipitation during the rainy summer. Similarly, the equitable threat score for forecasting below- and above-normal precipitation events presents good results in eastern China but is affected by biases of raw predictions. The variations in the subseasonal prediction skill at different time scales reveal the potential values of cumulative precipitation predictions. The findings of this study can provide practical information for applications that prioritize the long-term aggregation of hydrometeorological variables. Significance Statement The daily and cumulative precipitation prediction skills of three subseasonal prediction products were evaluated over China in this study. Our results reveal the spatiotemporal variations in prediction skill, especially with respect to time scale. Compared to daily precipitation predictions, cumulative precipitation predictions are more skillful, with correlation coefficients peaking at 0.7–0.8 after 3–5 days. These results can provide valuable information for water resource managers who are more concerned with the general conditions over a period than with hydrometeorological events occurring on a particular day. This study can guide end users in applying appropriate time scales to fully exploit numerical weather prediction information and satisfy their specific needs.